FNUS75 KPUB 250215
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
815 PM MDT SAT JUL 24 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

A DISTURBANCE DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL COMBINE
WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE BURN SITE.  ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT
PASS OVER THE BURN SITE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH AN HOUR.  OCCASIONAL EASTERLY GUSTS
TO NEAR 15 MPH WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER VARIABLE
GUSTS DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE BURN AREA ON MONDAY WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS.  AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.  DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SO
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS LOOKS TO DIMINISH.  DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO LEAD TO A BIT POORER HUMIDITY RECOVERIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO
MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70F.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 2 TO4 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN EAST
                    5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................4.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(65 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53F.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 4 MPH AFTER 2200.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(55 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75F.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 4 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 4 TO 8 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS UP TO 14 MPH AFTER 0900.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...BLACK HILLS MODULE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100724.MEDAN.01/PUB