FNAK79 PAFG 260358
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAT CREEK FIRE  501...BLM-AFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
758 PM AKDT SUN JUL 25 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1940 AKDT ON JULY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE
ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FIRE EARLY THIS EVENING. NONE OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
HAVE HAD ANY LIGHTNING...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CASE THIS EVENING. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR DAY...BUT WITH A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
WETTER PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN.

THE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
INTO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A THERMAL TROUGH
LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FIRE.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS...
                    MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST TO NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH
CWR.................16 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL LOWERING TO 800-1200 FT AFL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING SOUTH AFTER 1500. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................16 PERCENT.
LAL.................1..THEN 2 AFTER 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BOGEL
REQUESTED BY...JAMES HIGGINS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100725.PATCR.02/AFG