FNUS75 KPUB 260109
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
709 PM MDT SUN JUL 25 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST AROUND THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 2100.  THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
-FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.  THESE WILL BE DIURNAL
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS UNDER
THE CORES.  LIGHTNING AND VARIABLE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.  DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE 20% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.  WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ON MONDAY
THE PREVAILING DIRECTION IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE.  WINDS MAY
BEGIN EASTERLY AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AS MIXING DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING WITH
MORE OF A VARIABLE DIRECTION MOST LIKELY.  A RETURN TO THE
MONSOON PATTERN IS FORECAST BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL BY THE WEEKEND FOR THE BURN SITE.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(50 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 4 MPH UNTIL 0900 BECOMING
                    VARIABLE WITH A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWEST
                    DIRECTION AT 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 3.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 4 MPH AFTER 2100.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY(60
                    PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN EAST
                    4 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...BLACK HILLS MODULE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100725.MEDAN.01/PUB