FNUS75 KGJT 262111
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEADOW CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT MON JUL 26 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1423 MDT ON JULY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...PERSISTENCE IS WORKING WELL. THAT IS...THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE BURN SITE IS DIRECTLY
UNDER THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PRODUCED A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 17-22,000 FEET MSL. WARMER THAN
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD STILL
POP A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE WILL COLLAPSE
WITH SUNSET WITH PERSISTENCE WORKING WELL TONIGHT TOO. THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL DECREASE YOUR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SPREAD AND INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT SUNDAY AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

*OBSERVATION NOTE: FORECAST IS FOR THE RAWS SITE AT 9400 FEET.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-60 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........41-46%.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-50300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-36%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 2-5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (7900-48800 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 2500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. INCREASING
                    TO 9800 FT AGL BY 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........64-69%.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4200-47800 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7400-22700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (93400 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1000...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...AMY HAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100726.MEADO.01/GJT