FNUS72 KILM 261805 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDWICK FIRE...SC FORESTRY COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 205 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1324 EDT ON JULY 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... AT THE HARDWICK WILDFIRE...GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED. A DEVELOPING INVERSION AND RELATIVELY LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSION FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL IMPROVE INTO THE FAIR CATEGORY ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS IN THE MID MORNING OF TUESDAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96. MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH...BECOMING EAST AROUND 2 MPH LATE. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TIME (EDT) 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............46 55 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................94 93 MIN HUMIDITY........47 45 WIND (20 FT)........NW 4 N 3 20 FT WIND GUST..... 6 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....NW 3 N 3 EYE LVL WND GST..... 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST TO EAST 3 TO 6 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............63 78 82 85 91 86 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................90 85 81 79 78 77 MIN HUMIDITY........67 78 87 92 93 97 WIND (20 FT)........S 4 S 3 S 3 S 2 S 2 NW 1 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 5 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....S 3 S 2 S 2 S 2 S 1 NW 1 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 5 5 5 5 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000-3600 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 8 MPH LATE. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............81 72 80 81 82 82 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................76 77 81 85 86 85 MIN HUMIDITY........98 95 82 74 71 72 WIND (20 FT)........N 2 E 3 SE 4 SE 4 SE 4 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....N 1 E 2 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...COLBY REQUESTED BY...DOUG MILLS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100726.HARDW.01/ILM