FNUS73 KAPX 271312 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BEES BLOCK 9 11...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 912 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON JULY 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FLOOD THE NORTHERN LAKES TODAY...DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS COLD FRONT. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 30S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT...AS THE COLD MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........81 AT IGNITION...MAX 86. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL AT IGNITION. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1100). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........16 16 16 37 37 37 37 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............78 81 83 84 85 84 84 RH..............48 44 41 40 39 41 43 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 9 11 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......700 900 900 900 900 10001100 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....70. MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........37 37 29 29 29 29 29 29 58 58 58 58 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW TEMP............82 81 81 79 77 75 74 73 72 72 71 71 RH..............47 49 51 54 60 64 66 71 73 76 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW S S S S SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......130015001300700 300 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....83. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 26 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1000). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 71 71 71 57 57 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............71 73 77 81 82 82 RH..............84 83 73 68 64 60 20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 8 SW 9 W 10 W 10 W 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 SMOKE DISP......200 400 600 700 800 1000 $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT ROZANSKI REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE THOMPSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100727.BLUEB.01/APX