FNUS73 KMQT 271244 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR JAPANEESE BARBERRY...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 844 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0845 EDT ON JULY 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. LOOK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.P. TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LAST LATE INTO THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70 AT IGNITION...MAX 86. MIN HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 31 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (201) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (462) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (953) BY LATE MORNING. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-5900 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........3 13 27 35 40 46 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............66 73 82 84 85 84 RH..............86 64 52 50 50 52 GENERAL WIND....SW 7 SW 8 SW 11 SW 12 SW 14 SW 12 GENERAL GUST....15 15 20 24 24 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.45 336 574 932 953 930 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2600 4800 5800 5600 4700 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 66. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 99 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO 14 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 44 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 33 TO 55 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO 28 TO 43 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (458) DECREASING TO POOR (0) BY LATE EVENING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0200...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-900 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.60 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........50 50 50 50 58 69 WEATHER COV..... NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............82 76 72 70 69 66 RH..............57 70 82 89 93 99 GENERAL WIND....S 10 S 10 SW 11 SW 14 SW 14 W 11 GENERAL GUST....20 20 25 25 25 25 VINDX KT-FT/100.856 458 175 100 86 18 MIX HGT (FT)....3300 1600 500 300 200 100 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 3 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 78. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 36 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (320) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1476). LAL.................3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-6100 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.10 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........77 60 38 21 21 21 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE TEMP............69 72 76 77 78 77 RH..............91 78 66 62 56 52 GENERAL WIND....NW 9 NW 9 NW 9 NW 11 NW 11 NW 12 GENERAL GUST....15 15 20 25 25 25 VINDX KT-FT/100.68 661 1208 1476 1470 1376 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2600 4800 5900 6100 6000 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...JLB REQUESTED BY...KAREN WAALEN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100727.JAPAN.03/MQT