FNUS76 KMFR 290245 RRA
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIRTHDAY FIRE...USDA FOREST SERVICE MODOC NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
709 PM PDT WED JUL 28 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1826 PDT ON JULY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE FIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING
AND RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WILL BE NOT MUCH ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY FOR MOST OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER BY THE
END OF THE DAY SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CREEP INTO SOUTHERN
MODOC COUNTY AND COULD CAUSE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUP LATE IN THE DAY.
THE TREND IS FOR SOME COOLING ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
HOWEVER WINDS COULD ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON
FRIDAY.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58.
MAX HUMIDITY........RISING TO 30 PERCENT AROUND 2300...MAX OF 55
                    PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    DECREASING BELOW 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 3500 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...DECREASING
                    TO SOUTHWEST 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87.
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 7 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
                    12 MPH AFTER 1500
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE WIND 2 TO 3 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 10 TO 12 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...BUNNAG
REQUESTED BY...SHAWN MACK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100728.BIRTH.01/MFR