FNUS75 KGJT 291540
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEADOW CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
940 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0812 MDT ON JULY 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DEEP OVER THE BURN SITE TODAY
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE VERY SLOW STORM
MOTION. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THAT
WILL DIMINISH THE MOISTURE JUST A BIT INTO SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL
WATCHING A DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY FOR A POSSIBLE UP-TURN IN CHANCES OF RAIN. THE LATEST
MODELS HINT AT DRIER AIR (BUT NOT TOTALLY DRY!) WORKING IN FROM
THE WEST BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCAL WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85%.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT FAIR TO GOOD NEAR SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................5 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL AFTER
                    2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT EXCELLENT NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN LAL OF 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85%.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-3800 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN LAL OF 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (3000-44200 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN LAL OF 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...AMY HAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100729.MEADO.01/GJT