FNUS75 KRIW 291706 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BULL...IA TDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 1106 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1034 MDT ON JULY 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TODAY ACROSS THE FIRE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DESPITE OTHER LESS THAN FAVORABLE CONVECTION PARAMETERS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE REDUCED ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...BERC .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73. MIN HUMIDITY........32-36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 4 PM. LAL.................2. CWR.................4 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9900-10600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO 14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (28000-66600 KNOT-FT). .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-53. MAX HUMIDITY........68-71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................2. CWR.................4 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7100-8100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400-3400 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 6 TO 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (5400-43000 KNOT-FT). .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73. MIN HUMIDITY........31-34 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4. CWR.................4 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-6700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9100-39200 KNOT-FT). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...BERC REQUESTED BY...BILL MOE REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100729.BULL_.01/RIW