FNUS75 KRIW 311442
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR TRIP CREEK...BLM CAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
842 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0749 MDT ON JULY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL POTENTIALLY HELP SOME ENHANCED STORM
ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN WYOMING AS WELL AS BRING SOME BREEZY WEST
WIND TO THE FIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. IF STORMS DEVELOP
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BIG HORNS...AN EASTERLY FLOW COULD DEVELOP
AT THE FIRE SITE AHEAD OF THE STORMS. THUS...ERRATIC WIND
DIRECTION IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MCDONALD

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 8-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING WEST IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CWR.................5 TO 10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000-11000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING EXCELLENT (55000-150000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CWR.................5 TO 10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT
                    AND VARIABLE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING POOR (50000-8000 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-8400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (42000-84000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MCDONALD
REQUESTED BY...GREG BUCKALEW
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100731.TRIPC.01/RIW