FNUS73 KAPX 021514 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BEES UNIT 11...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1114 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF CLEARING IS DEVELOPING IN WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AROUND 2 PM OR SO. THE BURN AREA WOULD BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS CLEARING SO IT COULD END UP BEING CLOUDIER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2 PM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST AROUND 4 PM BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 81. MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3700-5500 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1100). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 80 69 69 64 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............75 77 79 80 81 81 RH..............70 67 62 60 58 56 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 15 10 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......600 800 900 110011001100 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....68. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........64 58 58 58 66 66 WEATHER COV..... PATCHY PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE FOG FOG TEMP............81 78 74 71 70 69 RH..............56 64 74 79 78 81 20 FT WIND......W 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 SMOKE DISP......900 400 100 0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....85. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-4300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........66 74 74 69 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....FOG RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............69 74 82 84 RH..............84 74 61 57 20 FT WIND......W 6G15 W 6G15 W 7G15 W 8G15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 SMOKE DISP......0 200 800 900 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...SHANE FORSHEE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100802.BLUEB.01/APX