FNUS75 KRIW 030957
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BULL...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
357 AM MDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2221 MDT ON AUGUST 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...UPSTREAM RADARS OVER POCATELLO AND SALT LAKE CITY WERE
LIGHTING UP WITH CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS...RIGHT FROM
THE OUTSET AT BRIEFING TIME THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FIRE. SOME CELLS HAVE HAD A
HISTORY OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO
TODAY. THE BIG PICTURE WILL BE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND
STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FOR FIRE CREWS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
LIKEWISE RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL WORK IN THIS EVENING
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER......... PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                     ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SCATTERED
                     THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....HIGHS RANGING FROM 70-74 AT 7500 FEET TO 60-63 AT 9000
                    FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT AT 7500 FEET TO 40-45 PERCENT AT 9000
                    FEET.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN TODAY
                    WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM
                    NEARBY SHOWERS AND STORMS.  WEST SOUTHWEST
                    WIND AT 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL
                    PREVAIL AFTER 1500.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN TODAY
                    WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM
                    NEARBY SHOWERS AND STORMS.  WEST SOUTHWEST
                    WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL
                    PREVAIL AFTER 1500.
LAL.................2 THROUGH 1200 THEN 3.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
                    GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300-6300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11300-12100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING INCREASING TO
                    20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (54000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD (125300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) BY MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300-7300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400-2200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (76400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (15000
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CWR.................ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12900-13900 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (79000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (159700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...BULL FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100802.BULL_.02/RIW