FNUS75 KRIW 031349
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BULL...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
749 AM MDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2221 MDT ON AUGUST 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPSTREAM RADARS OVER POCATELLO AND SALT LAKE CITY WERE LIGHTING
UP WITH CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS...RIGHT FROM THE
OUTSET AT BRIEFING TIME THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FIRE. SOME CELLS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO TODAY. THE BIG
PICTURE WILL BE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FOR FIRE CREWS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
LIKEWISE RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL WORK IN THIS EVENING
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................4.
CWR.................11 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300-6300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11300-12100 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (64600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (125300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CWR.................LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300-7300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400-2200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (76400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (15000
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CWR.................ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12900-13900 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (79000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (159700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER/BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...BULL FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100802.BULL_.02/RIW