FNUS75 KBOU 042336 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LONGS PEAK SAR...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 530 PM MDT WED AUG 4 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE SEARCH AREA LATE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST WEATHER RADAR LOOP INDICATES A SCATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AND TO THE WEST OF THE SEARCH AREA. SHOULD THESE SHOWERS PASS OVER THE AREA...ANTICIPATE CHILLY GUSTY WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES OR SO. HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING BOLTS THIS EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...COULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM SOUTHWEST COLORADO. ALL THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300... THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-43. MAX HUMIDITY........81-88%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHWEST 7-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-59. MIN HUMIDITY........54-61%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL AFTER 0900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 50. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LONGS PEAK SAR. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/04-17 82 59 50 75 NE 7 5 3827 SW 5 14133 P 08/04-18 86 64 52 69 NW 17 28 4 5 W32 3612 SW 6 18575 P 08/04-19 86 64 51 71 NW 15 5 2642 SW 6 13492 P 08/04-20 86 64 49 73 SW 12 5 1673 S 6 8409 P 08/04-21 76 64 47 76 SW 10 10 4 5 W35 703 S 6 3326 P 08/04-22 76 64 46 76 SW 10 5 565 S 6 2732 P 08/04-23 76 64 45 76 SW 10 5 426 S 6 2138 P 08/05-00 55 10 43 78 W 12 12 4 1 W22 288 S 7 1544 P 08/05-01 55 10 42 82 W 13 1 263 SW 7 1480 P 08/05-02 55 10 41 85 W 9 1 238 W 7 1417 P 08/05-03 55 10 40 86 W 10 10 4 1 W15 213 W 8 1354 P 08/05-04 55 10 40 83 W 10 1 201 W 8 1257 P 08/05-05 55 10 40 79 NW 9 1 188 NW 7 1160 P 08/05-06 57 10 40 75 NW 8 8 4 2 SW10 176 NW 7 1063 P 08/05-07 57 10 41 72 NW 7 2 403 NW 7 2491 P 08/05-08 57 10 43 66 N 6 2 630 NW 7 3920 P 08/05-09 57 10 46 62 N 5 5 4 2 W16 857 NW 7 5349 P 08/05-10 57 10 48 61 N 3 2 1524 NW 6 5494 P 08/05-11 57 10 50 62 NW 3 2 2191 NW 5 5639 P 08/05-12 85 40 51 64 W 2 2 4 4 W23 2858 NW 2 5784 P 08/05-13 85 40 52 66 E 3 4 3537 NW 5 12928 P 08/05-14 85 40 52 67 S 3 4 4215 W 6 20072 P 08/05-15 85 40 53 67 S 3 3 4 4 W25 4893 W 7 27216 P 08/05-16 85 40 53 67 S 2 4 4517 W 6 24221 P 08/05-17 85 40 53 66 CALM 4 4142 W 6 21227 P 08/05-18 78 40 52 64 CALM 0 4 4 W20 3766 W 6 18232 P 08/05-19 78 40 52 63 CALM 4 2791 W 5 12540 P 08/05-20 78 40 51 63 CALM 4 1816 SW 3 6847 P 08/05-21 78 40 50 62 CALM 0 4 4 W17 842 SW 2 1155 P 08/05-22 78 40 49 61 CALM 4 703 CALM 912 P 08/05-23 78 40 48 61 CALM 4 564 CALM 668 P 08/06-00 42 0 47 62 CALM 0 4 1 W16 425 CALM 425 P 08/06-01 42 0 46 64 CALM 1 362 CALM 357 P 08/06-02 42 0 46 65 CALM 1 299 CALM 289 P 08/06-03 42 0 46 65 CALM 0 4 1 W15 236 CALM 221 P 08/06-04 42 0 45 64 CALM 1 236 CALM 256 P 08/06-05 42 0 45 63 CALM 1 235 CALM 290 P 08/06-06 42 0 45 61 CALM 0 4 1 SW17 234 CALM 325 P 08/06-07 42 0 46 59 CALM 1 494 W 3 1644 P 08/06-08 42 0 48 55 CALM 1 753 W 3 2962 P 08/06-09 42 0 49 54 CALM 0 4 1 SW20 1013 W 5 4280 P 08/06-10 42 0 50 58 CALM 1 1873 W 7 15189 P 08/06-11 42 0 52 65 CALM 1 2734 W 9 26099 P 08/06-12 67 20 52 70 CALM 0 4 3 W24 3594 W 12 37008 P 08/06-13 67 20 53 65 W 5 3 4060 W 14 51185 F 08/06-14 67 20 53 60 W 10 3 4525 W 16 65362 G 08/06-15 67 20 54 54 W 14 22 4 3 SW23 4990 W 18 79539 G 08/06-16 67 20 54 55 W 10 3 3994 W 15 57004 F 08/06-17 67 20 54 56 W 5 3 2998 W 10 34469 P 08/06-18 67 20 53 58 CALM 0 4 3 W30 2002 W 7 11934 P 08/06-19 67 20 53 59 CALM 3 1609 W 6 8944 P 08/06-20 67 20 52 58 CALM 3 1217 W 5 5953 P 08/06-21 67 20 51 57 CALM 0 4 3 W28 825 W 5 2962 P 08/06-22 67 20 50 55 CALM 3 709 W 5 2581 P 08/06-23 67 20 50 53 CALM 3 594 W 5 2199 P 08/07-00 41 0 49 52 CALM 0 4 1 W32 477 W 5 1818 P 08/07-01 41 0 48 51 CALM 1 415 W 5 1518 P 08/07-02 41 0 48 51 CALM 1 351 W 5 1219 P 08/07-03 41 0 47 51 CALM 0 4 1 W31 288 W 3 918 P 08/07-04 41 0 47 51 CALM 1 295 W 3 947 P 08/07-05 41 0 47 51 CALM 1 301 W 5 976 P 08/07-06 41 0 47 51 CALM 0 4 1 W29 308 W 5 1004 P 08/07-07 41 0 48 52 CALM 1 607 W 6 3183 P 08/07-08 41 0 50 48 CALM 1 905 W 7 5362 P 08/07-09 41 0 53 46 CALM 0 4 1 W25 1204 W 8 7541 P 08/07-10 41 0 54 45 CALM 1 3750 W 9 33506 P 08/07-11 41 0 56 45 CALM 1 6296 W 10 59471 F 08/07-12 63 20 57 44 CALM 0 4 3 W25 8842 W 12 85437 G 08/07-13 63 20 57 44 CALM 3 9177 W 12 87749 G 08/07-14 63 20 58 44 CALM 3 9512 W 12 90062 G 08/07-15 63 20 58 43 CALM 0 4 3 SW24 9846 W 12 92375 G 08/07-16 63 20 58 43 CALM 3 9083 W 10 84091 G 08/07-17 63 20 58 43 SW 3 3 8320 W 10 75805 G 08/07-18 63 20 58 44 SW 6 6 4 3 SW22 7557 W 10 67521 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...TIM PHILLIPS REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20100804.LONGS.02/BOU