FNUS75 KRIW 051116
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PILGRIM CREEK...NPS GTP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
516 AM MDT THU AUG 5 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2140 MDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE DAY WILL START WITH SUNSHINE...THEN CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP BY NOON AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 2 PM.
THE FIRE MAY BE THREATENED BY STORMS AFTER 2 PM THROUGH 10 PM. A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE TO LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN WYOMING...
THUS A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAY IMPACT THE FIRE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WEATHER...EXCEPT THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER...BY 11 AM...AND THE THREAT
FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY AFTER 1200. THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER 3 PM.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE AT 3 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER 1200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....VARIABLE AT 5 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AT 8 TO 14 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
                    POSSIBLE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CWR.................4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL MIDNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS TO
                    30 MPH POSSIBLE.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................4 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN LAL 2.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AT 10 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
                    AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL SUNSET...THEN BECOMING POOR.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS.
                    THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3 TO 6 MPH...THEN SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 MPH
                    AFTER 1200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.
LAL.................2 UNTIL NOON...THEN LAL 4.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7500-8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...WEIRSMA
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100804.PILGR.02/RIW