FNUS72 KJAX 060851
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CENTRAL WILLOW FIRE...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2255 EDT ON AUGUST 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WHILE A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WILDFIRE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MORNING ACTIVITY. THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE IS FORECAST TO HOLD NEAR CUMBERLAND ISLAND TODAY.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS WILL SUSTAIN
BELOW 15 MPH...WITH GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING ANY THUNDERSTORM.
DISTANT TROPICAL STORM COLIN WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-3800 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....28.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........55     57     57     63     68     68
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RAIN   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............79     80     85     89     90     89
RH..............91     89     75     67     64     66
20 FT WIND......SW 8   SW 8   SW 8   SW 8   SW 8   SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1200   1900   1900   2900   3800   3800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9   W 12   W 12   SW 10  SW 10  SW 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     20     30     50     50
LAL.............1      3      3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1200 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....10.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........72     75     75     73     71     71
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............87     84     82     81     80     79
RH..............71     78     84     86     88     90
20 FT WIND......S 10   S 10   SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  SW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....3600   1700   1700   1100   500    500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 12  SW 12  SW 12  SW 12  SW 12  SW 12
LVORI...........5      5      5      5      5      5
DISPERSION INDX.30     25     25     10     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     50     40     30     20     20
LAL.............3      3      3      3      2      2

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-4200 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....18.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...ZAPPE
REQUESTED BY...MIRANDA STUART
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100805.CENTR.01/JAX