FNUS75 KRIW 052059
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PILGRIM CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
259 PM MDT THU AUG 5 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 MDT ON AUGUST 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CLOUDS DO APPEAR TO
BE SPREADING EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN REMAIN OVER AND NEAR THE FIRE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS THE EXPECTED HAZARDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND TO 40-45
MPH. WITH STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TOMORROW...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FIRE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENTS...SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE OVER THE FIRE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MAY BRING SOME GUSTY WIND ACROSS THE FIRE.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1530.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-84.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1530...THEN 4.
CWR.................4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-11300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (52200-90600 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY 2300.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER
                    2300.
LAL.................4.
CWR.................12 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000-2000 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 7
                    TO 10 MPH AFTER 2300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (10800-47000 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65
                    PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AROUND
                    5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTER 1200.
LAL.................4.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8400-8900 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 15
                    MPH BY 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (29800-69100 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...SMITH
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100805.PILGR.01/RIW