FNAK79 PAFG 071543
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR 501 PAT CREEK...ALASKA FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
743 AM AKDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1926 AKDT ON AUGUST 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIR MASS OVER THE FIRE HAS STABILIZED OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS AROUND
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE FIRE PICKED UP THIS
MORNING...GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH. SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY LOSING ENERGY...THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY...NOT
INCREASE AS WOULD NORMALLY BE THE CASE.

THE REAL CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK IS THE ONSET OF SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE STARTING LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE A GOOD BET...BUT
THE 80S ARE OUT OF REACH. THE MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
AND HOLDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THEN A FURTHER RISE IN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FOLLOW IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO TELL.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 17 MPH DIMINISHING TO
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH BY 2 PM.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL
                    BY 3 PM.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 17 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL BY 4 AM.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL BY 3 PM.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FATHAUER
REQUESTED BY...JAMES HIGGINS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100806.501PA.01/AFG