FNUS72 KJAX 070945 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR CENTRAL WILLOW FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 545 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2158 EDT ON AUGUST 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CUMBERLAND ISLAND LAST NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS WILL SUSTAIN BELOW 15 MPH...WITH GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING ANY THUNDERSTORM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87. MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-3700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 13 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....23. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........79 78 78 76 74 74 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 80 84 86 87 86 RH..............91 90 80 74 71 73 20 FT WIND......W 8 W 8 W 8 W 8 SW 7 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1700 1700 2300 3700 3700 TRANSPORT WIND..W 12 W 13 W 13 W 10 W 8 W 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 30 40 60 60 LAL.............3 3 3 3 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1100 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 9 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....5. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........79 83 83 74 65 65 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 82 80 79 79 78 RH..............78 85 90 92 94 95 20 FT WIND......S 9 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 W 7 W 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3600 1700 1700 1100 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 SW 8 W 7 W 7 LVORI...........6 6 6 6 6 6 DISPERSION INDX.24 20 20 5 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 40 40 40 20 20 LAL.............4 3 3 3 2 2 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....61. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...ZAPPE REQUESTED BY...MIRANDA STUART TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100806.CENTR.01/JAX