FNUS75 KRIW 061819
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PILGRIM CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1219 PM MDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1220 MDT ON AUGUST 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR MOVE OVER THE FIRE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WIND TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIALLY A
QUICK BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY WILL CONTAIN THE SAME GENERAL THREATS AS THOSE STORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES OVER THE FIRE
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENTS...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND OVER THE FIRE.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
                    AFTER 1400. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 40 MPH...
                    FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
                    EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...THEN INCREASING TO
                    15 TO 20 MPH AFTER 1400.
LAL.................5.
CWR.................38 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8400-8900 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (60500-103000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) AFTER 2300.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH 2200 THEN
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 15 MPH THROUGH 2200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
                    FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
                    POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AFTER 2100...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    NORTHEAST AFTER 0100.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1100-2100 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AFTER 2100...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    NORTHEAST AFTER 0100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (11500-52800 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AFTER 1100. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 MPH
                    EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 18 MPH AFTER 1200.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2.
CWR.................3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9400-10400 FT AGL AFTER 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (35600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (107300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...SMITH
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100806.PILGR.01/RIW