FNUS75 KRIW 082033
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUR MOOSE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
233 PM MDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1357 MDT ON AUGUST 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARD WYOMING THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK BUT WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH NORTHEAST WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD THE ROCKIES MONDAY
AND PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL AGAIN PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING
                    IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....TEMPERATURES REMAINING BETWEEN 67 AND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........REMAINING BETWEEN 37 AND 39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 1630
                    WITH WINDS OCCASIONALY REACHING SPEEDS OF
                    40 MPH FOR RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIODS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM
                    DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
                    WINDS OCCASIONALLY BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
                    AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................4.
CWR.................6 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9700-10700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (155400 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 4-7 MPH. THEN DOWNVALLEY
                    FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CWR.................3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600-7600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500-3400 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST 16 TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (104100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (40100 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE 5-9 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEN SOUTHWEST
                    AT 13 TO 23 MPH BY 1500. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500-8500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    16 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (64200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (122800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...GARY  HAYWARD
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100808.SOURM.01/RIW