FNUS73 KAPX 091535 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR LOST CREEK...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1135 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON AUGUST 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...OVERALL LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH WEAK SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...KEEPING HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THIS EVENING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........77 AT IGNITION...MAX 83. MIN HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 61 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 3 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4500-4700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........75 75 75 65 65 65 57 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............76 79 82 83 83 83 82 RH..............76 69 63 61 61 61 63 20 FT WIND DIR..SE S SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 5 5 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......200 200 300 300 300 300 400 $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT ROZANSKI REQUESTED BY...ALYEA JOE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100809.LOSTC.01/APX