FNUS74 KLZK 101135 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLLY BRANCH WILDFIRE...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 635 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0606 CDT ON AUGUST 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY... .DISCUSSION... VERY LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...SO WINDS BE CALM UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A LIGHT UPSLOPE WIND WILL BEGIN...GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 3-5MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD BY LATE MORNING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BURN SITE WILL TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD FORM IN A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION THAT CUTS THE STATE IN HALF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SAY THE BURN SITE WILL NOT SEE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES...HIGHS AROUND 100 ARE EXPECTED TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S...EVEN DURING PEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...SO HEAT INDICES WILL END UP IN THE 105-110 RANGE. AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 45 PERCENT...WITH GOOD RH RECOVERIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........79 AT REQUEST...MAX 100. MIN HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 43 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT EARLY...BECOMING 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....CALM WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 7100 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....1. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 1 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............79 83 86 90 93 95 97 98 99 99 99 98 RH..............85 77 70 62 55 51 48 45 44 43 44 46 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..1 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.S SE SE S S S S S S S S SE EYE LVL WND SPD.0 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.0 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S S S S S S S S SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.6 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....77. MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3700 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....6. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV.....SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TEMP............97 95 91 88 86 85 84 82 82 81 80 80 RH..............46 49 55 61 65 67 69 72 73 75 77 78 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...C DALTON REQUESTED BY...ADAM STROTHERS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100810.HOLLY.01/LZK