FNUS74 KLZK 111253 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR BASS CREEK...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 753 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON AUGUST 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS OF AR DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL. THIS CONTINUES TO LOWER FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS VEGETATION CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE DANGER EXISTS IN THE OUACHITA NATIONAL FOREST REGION OF CENTRAL AND WRN AR...WHICH IS ALSO THE REGION OF THE STATE WITH THE LOWEST FORECAST RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. THIS ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT...OR A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. BETTER...MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........84 AT IGNITION...MAX 100. MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 6500 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............84 87 90 93 95 97 98 99 99 98 RH..............75 69 64 58 54 51 49 47 46 48 EYE LVL WND DIR.E SE SE S S S S SE E E EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 EYE LVL WND GST.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....77. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 7 MPH. STABILITY CLASS.....3. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............96 91 86 84 82 80 RH..............50 60 71 76 80 83 EYE LVL WND DIR.E E SE SE SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.3 3 1 1 1 1 EYE LVL WND GST.3 3 3 3 0 0 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E SE TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 5 6 7 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....101. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 7600 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TEMP............80 87 96 100 RH..............85 70 52 44 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 2 2 EYE LVL WND GST.0 3 3 3 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE E E TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 20 $$ FORECASTER...58 REQUESTED BY...JOSEPH HARSH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100811.BASSC.01/LZK