FNUS74 KLZK 111145 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLLY CREEK...U.S.FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 645 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0620 CDT ON AUGUST 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY... .DISCUSSION... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS OF AR DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL. THIS CONTINUES TO LOWER FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS VEGETATION CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. THE HIGHEST WILDFIRE DANGER EXISTS IN THE OUACHITA NATIONAL FOREST REGION OF CENTRAL AND WRN AR...WHICH IS ALSO THE REGION OF THE STATE WITH THE LOWEST FORECAST RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. THIS ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS HOT...OR A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. BETTER...MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........81 AT REQUEST...MAX 100. MIN HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 39 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTHEAST 2 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 6800 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 1 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............77 80 84 88 91 94 96 98 99 99 99 98 RH..............91 80 72 64 57 51 47 43 41 40 41 44 20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW S S SE E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 EYE LVL WND DIR.W W SW S S SE E E E E E E EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 EYE LVL WND GST.0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 TRANSP WIND DIR.E NE N NW NW NE NE E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 2 3 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....76. MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS........EAST 5 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3600 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV.....ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM TEMP............97 94 91 88 85 84 83 82 81 80 80 79 RH..............44 47 55 62 67 70 73 75 77 79 80 81 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E NE NE NE NE NE N NW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EYE LVL WND DIR.E E E NE NE NE NE NE N NW W W EYE LVL WND SPD.3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 EYE LVL WND GST.3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....101. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 7800 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............79 79 82 86 90 94 96 98 99 100 100 99 RH..............81 81 74 67 59 53 47 43 40 39 38 40 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W S SE E E E E SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.W W W S SE E E E E SE SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E SE TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 $$ FORECASTER...62 REQUESTED BY...ADAM STROTHERS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100811.HOLLY.01/LZK