FNUS74 KLZK 131140 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR CREEK COMPLEX WEST ZONE...U.S.FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 640 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0629 CDT ON AUGUST 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY... .DISCUSSION... VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR. THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS WRN AR...OR IN THE OUACHITA MTN REGION OF THE STATE...WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN NRN AND CENTRAL AR BY SUN EVENING. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE AND RESULTING RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LOWER THE WILDFIRE DANGER SOME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........78 AT REQUEST...MAX 101. MIN HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 32 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 7 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 7600 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 1 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC PC WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............78 81 83 86 90 93 96 99 100 100 100 99 RH..............84 75 67 59 51 45 41 37 34 33 34 37 20 FT WIND DIR..N NW W W SW SW SW SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 2 2 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.N NW W W SW SW SW SW S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 30 30 30 30 30 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....76. MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3900 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV.....ISO SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............97 95 91 88 85 84 83 81 81 80 79 79 RH..............37 42 50 58 65 68 70 73 74 76 78 80 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SE SE S SW W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 5 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S SE SE S SW W W W W W EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....100. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 7600 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............78 78 81 85 89 92 95 97 98 98 99 98 RH..............81 81 75 68 60 52 45 40 37 35 35 36 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW SW SW S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 2 3 6 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.0 0 0 0 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW SW S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.0 0 0 0 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.14 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 $$ FORECASTER...62 REQUESTED BY...JIM MCCOY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100813.CREEK.01/LZK