FNAK79 PAFG 152044
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR 501 PAT CREEK...ALASKA FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1244 PM AKDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1649 AKDT ON AUGUST 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS OF 15 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 30% THIS AFTERNOON TO CAUSE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THE HUMIDITY WILL RISE AND THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING ENDING THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HEAT
TO THE FIRE TODAY. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING
A DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THERE WILL
BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
THE CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN IS SLIM. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY...BUT COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 25 MPH.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35 PERCENT) IN THE EVENING...
                    THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 15G25 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH
                    BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH SHIFTING INTO THE WEST
                    BY MIDNIGHT.


.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE RAIN.                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING INTO THE EAST
                    AFTER NOON.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 10 MPH...SHIFTING INTO THE EAST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BRADER
REQUESTED BY...AMBER SUNDERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100814.501PA.01/AFG