FNUS73 KFGF 171226 FWSFGF SPOT FORECAST FOR SKULL LAKE S DUNE...TNC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 726 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 CDT ON AUGUST 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE PROPOSED BURN TIME. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CANADA THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON WILL RUN THE RISK OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF UP TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE GOOD MIXING OF THE WINDS WILL HELP DRAW DOWN DRY AIR FROM ALOFT...AND ALLOW THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO A MINIMUM NEAR 40 PERCENT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN VALLEY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. ANY STORMS COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THE FRONT WIND SHIFT MAY NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST SINCE THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A MORE GRADUAL CHANGE FROM SOUTHERLY...TO EASTERLY...TO FINALLY NORTHERLY BY LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...SINCE IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EVEN A LITTLE MORE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THAN THE WIND SHIFT COULD BE MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED. AROUND 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS A GOOD BET FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE MORE RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78. MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........58 61 63 64 65 66 66 66 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............61 66 69 72 73 75 75 74 RH..............57 48 44 44 44 45 49 57 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 11 12 12 11 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 25 20 15 15 .TONIGHT... MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12 TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............73 65 57 54 51 48 RH..............62 67 74 80 85 91 20 FT WIND......S 6 SE 5 NE 5 N 5 N 5 N 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 .WEDNESDAY... MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70. MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM TEMP............47 55 63 67 RH..............96 83 60 54 20 FT WIND......N 6G10 N 6G10 N 5G10 N 5 $$ FORECASTER...GROCHOCINSKI REQUESTED BY...RUSSELL REISZ TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100817.SKULL.01/FGF