FNUS75 KGJT 161504
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DOE CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
904 AM MDT MON AUG 16 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON AUGUST 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BURN AREA
THIS MORNING. AFTER BREAK LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ANS STORMS LATE TODAY.
TRANSIENT RIDGING BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE OBSERVED OVER THE SAN JUANS. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1100...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING SCATTERED
                    AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-48%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1600...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500-37300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-500 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON
                    3-5 MPH AFTER 2100.
.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPCANYON 5 MPH BY 1200. RIDGETOP
                    WINDS WEST 5-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR BECOMING GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....TERRAIN-DRIVEN 3 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...BRAD PIETRUSZKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100817.DOECA.01/GJT