FNUS75 KBYZ 212240
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR STUMP GULCH...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
440 PM MDT SAT AUG 21 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1611 MDT ON AUGUST 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

...BREEZY...HOT AND DRY UNTIL SUNSET WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
...NOT AS HOT BUT DRY AND BREEZY AGAIN ON SUNDAY...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. CHALLENGING FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET DUE TO HOT AND DRY WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
WILL DECREASE TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE WINDS MAY TRAVEL WELL AWAY FROM THE
STORM CELLS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THE
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES OVER THE FIRE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 11 TO 16
PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FIRE SUNDAY
EVENING.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....95-100.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................6 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
MAX HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 15 MPH
                    OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................7 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-95.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ARTHUR
REQUESTED BY...TASHA TAYLOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100821.STUMP.01/BYZ