FNUS75 KRIW 222000
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARTHUR 2...NPS YNP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
200 PM MDT SUN AUG 22 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1325 MDT ON AUGUST 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE ARTHUR 2 FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY HAS PROVIDED SHADING LIMITING COVERAGE SO
FAR...BUT WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 2000 (8 PM) MDT AS THE TROUGH/ COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY BLANKET THE AREA BETWEEN 0300 AND 1100 MONDAY MORNING.
SOME CUMULUS WILL REMAIN MONDAY WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
POSSIBLE.  WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY...BUT LIGHTER THAN TODAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...T.BAKER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (200000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
                    THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 0300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 100 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 MPH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AROUND 2000. SPEEDS SLOWLY
                    DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...SHIFTING TO
                    THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    35 MPH AROUND 2000.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.35 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 MPH...SHIFTING NORTHWEST AROUND 2000.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (150000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (25000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-31 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (15000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (75000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...T.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100822.ARTHU.01/RIW