FNUS75 KGJT 232316
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LION CREEK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
516 PM MDT MON AUG 23 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1627 MDT ON AUGUST 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AGAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FIRE SITS BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND
THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY TUESDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING (30-40%)...THEN
                    BECOMING CLEAR (0-10%) BY MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 3-6 MPH. DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    3-6 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN DETERIORATING TO POOR
                    BY SUNSET (6000 KNOT-FT AFTER SUNSET).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 10 MPH BY
                    1830...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH AFTER
                    SUNSET.

.TUESDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (30-40%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...
                    THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH. AFTER
                    1600...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS 8-12 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 25 MPH FROM STORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN
                    MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRE...MAY
                    DOMINATE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE
                    FIRE MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR  UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
                    WINDS FROM STORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN
                    MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRE...MAY
                    DOMINATE TRANSPORT WINDS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. AT TIMES BEFORE
                    MIDNIGHT OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST 8-12
                    MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS MAY DOMINATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-14100 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 MPH UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...
                    THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.



$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...MONTROSE INTERAGENCY FIRE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100823.LIONC.01/GJT