FNUS75 KMSO 250034
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALDER CREEK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
634 PM MDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1735 MDT ON AUGUST 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
FIRE TODAY. AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SHORTLY AFTER
1300 AND BEGIN TO GET GUSTY AROUND 1600. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
DURING THE EVENING...HOWEVER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY POOR LEADING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE BURN AREA. DRY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN A HIGH HAINES INDEX LASTING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOES APPEAR TO BE
SLOWING AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE BURN AREA BETWEEN
1700 AND 2000 MST. VERY STRONG PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS DRY COLD FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
FIRE BEHAVIOR TODAY...BUT THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER PERIOD OVER THIS FIRE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
MAX HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING SOUTH
                    5-8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.

$$

FORECASTER...DICKERSON
REQUESTED BY...INCIDENT COMMANDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100824.ALDER.02/MSO