FNUS75 KCYS 261815
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK RX...WYO STATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1215 PM MDT THU AUG 26 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1225 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VERY GUSTY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INITIALLY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE BURN WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXING OUT THIS MORNING. THEN
WINDS SHOULD STEADY OUT...OR EVEN LOWER SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
THIS EVENING...WEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF EVEN MORE. THEN LATER
TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 TO 35 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........8 TO 12 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH...GUSTING TO
                    25 MPH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN WEST 8 TO 10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (15800-139200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH UNTIL EARLY EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO 15 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (13800-60300 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (25100-303400 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...CLAYCOMB
REQUESTED BY...MARK STREETS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100826.MORGA.02/CYS