FNUS75 KMSO 261644
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALDER CREEK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1044 AM MDT THU AUG 26 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1028 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WIND AND LOW RH...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST TODAY.  THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ALOFT...SUPPORTING A HAINES
INDEX NEAR 6 AS WELL.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE FIRE LATE TODAY...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
A VIGOROUS DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FIRE AND SUPPORT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL PEAK
WITH A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  THIS IS A VERY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD.  A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
OVER THE FIRE FRIDAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS CONTINUING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  CHANCE OF
                    A DRY THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE
                    VICINITY OF THE FIRE AFTER 3 PM.
CWR.................LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-13 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6-12 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 40 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF A DRY THUNDERSTORM IN
                    THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
CWR.................LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15-30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 10-20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 40 MPH...DECREASING LATE.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE EARLY...DECREASING TO A 4 LOW.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING.
CWR.................LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-12 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...BAUCK
REQUESTED BY...INCIDENT COMMANDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100826.ALDER.01/MSO