FNUS75 KCYS 280319
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARISTOCRAT...NE-NBF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
919 PM MDT FRI AUG 27 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1542 MDT ON AUGUST 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BRIEFLY THROUGH THE FIRE SITE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
BE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FIRE SITE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE FIRE
SITE SATURDAY AND THEN SIMILAR ON SUNDAY...BUT READINGS WILL STILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    UNTIL MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 16 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
                    BECOMING NORTHEAST 4 TO 8 MPH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
                    AM.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    (123000-2000 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 TO 18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 4 TO 7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 14
                    MPH BY LATE MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BECOMING EXCELLENT BY LATE MORNING.
                    (12000-63900 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...WEILAND
REQUESTED BY...PAT GOULD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100827.ARIST.01/CYS