FNUS75 KCYS 282145
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARISTOCRAT...NE-NBF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 PM MDT SAT AUG 28 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1528 MDT ON AUGUST 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHEAST
WYOMING TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID TO LOWER 90S.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW 20
PERCENT RANGE. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET
THAT MAY GIVE ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO INCREASE OVER NIGHT TONIGHT UP TO 10 TO 14 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1900-56400 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (45200-154200 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...CLAYCOMB
REQUESTED BY...SOLDIER CREEK MODULE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100828.ARIST.01/CYS