FNUS73 KUNR 281941
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR FLYNN CREEK...SD-BKF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
141 PM MDT SAT AUG 28 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1315 MDT ON AUGUST 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...THE FLYNN CREEK FIRE AREA REMAINS NEAR A WEAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...THEN THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE WIND GUSTS CAN
BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
                    THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 85.
RH..................MIN 20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12
                    MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. VARIABLE GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 TO 11100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 55.
RH..................MAX 69 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. VARIABLE GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO 200 TO 700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHERLY 16 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...
                    THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO POOR.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 84.
RH..................MIN 18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 TO 11100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...GR
REQUESTED BY...MATT SPRING
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100828.FLYNN.02/UNR