FNUS73 KDLH 291423 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR LIZARD...USFS SUPERIOR NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 923 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0808 CDT ON AUGUST 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS SINCE YESTERDAY INCLUDE INCREASING MIN/MAX RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY. INTRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 83-87 DEGREE RANGE TODAY/MONDAY. SOUTH 20 FT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS ALOFT...AROUND 2-3 KFT AGL...WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 50 KT OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT...INCREASING TO AROUND 55 PERCENT ON MONDAY. RECOVERY RH VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO THE 80 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE OR BETTER. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH A FEW TENTHS OF RAINFALL WILL BE AFTER 2200 TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE LIZARD FIRE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 1400 AND 1800. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND PERCEPTIBLE WATER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AFFECT THE BURN AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THE RAIN WILL END AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST WITH RAPIDLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 26 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (33000) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (110600) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM TEMP............73 78 83 84 82 RH..............55 47 41 38 44 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..10 13 15 16 14 20 FT WIND GUST.16 22 26 26 24 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......750 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (64200) DECREASING TO POOR (3350) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............80 73 70 69 68 67 RH..............49 64 72 78 82 85 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SW 20 FT WIND SPD..12 10 8 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.23 20 15 7 6 6 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2650 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (54800). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............66 71 76 79 81 80 RH..............93 81 69 60 56 58 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 8 11 14 14 11 20 FT WIND GUST.7 15 21 24 24 21 $$ FORECASTER...AMANDA REQUESTED BY...KEN GUITH TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100829.LIZAR.01/DLH