FNUS73 KGRR 291245
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR MCCARTHY LAKE RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
845 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TODAY...PLACING THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY CLIMB
THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING BACK THE HUMIDITY.
IN FACT...THE MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE AREA ALOFT
AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER HAS POPPED UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF
815 AM.

THERE IS ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE THOUGH THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HUMID AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VERY WARM READINGS PUSHING TOWARD 90 BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........85 AT IGNITION...MAX 90.
RH..................41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6600-7100 FT AGL...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 3900 FT AGL IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-400 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 800-1200
                    (EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT)...THEN INCREASING TO
                    1100-1400 (EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT) LATE IN THE
                    DAY DECREASING TO 700 (EXCELLENT) IN THE
                    EVENING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 66.
RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 8 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-2200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-300 (POOR TO GOOD).

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 89.
RH..................MIN 43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 22 TO
                    25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-6100 FT
                    AGL...THEN DECREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN THE
                    EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-200 (POOR TO FAIR) INCREASING TO 600
                    (EXCELLENT) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 1100-1500
                    (EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO 800
                    (EXCELLENT) IN THE EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER...DUKE
REQUESTED BY...BOB LITTLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100829.MCCAR.01/GRR