FNUS73 KDLH 301351 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR LIZARD...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 851 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0805 CDT ON AUGUST 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUTH 20 FT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS ALOFT...AROUND 2-3 KFT AGL...WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 45-50 KT OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS ALREADY PRESENT THIS MORNING...MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...AROUND 60 PERCENT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE LIZARD FIRE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 1700 AND 2100. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND PERCEPTIBLE WATER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AFFECT THE BURN AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THE RAIN WILL END AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST WITH RAPIDLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86. MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (35700) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (88100) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM TEMP............77 80 84 85 80 RH..............85 76 63 63 71 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..9 11 11 11 9 20 FT WIND GUST.16 20 20 20 16 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......750 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (16700). TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............76 71 69 68 67 66 RH..............74 87 93 93 93 97 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 10 12 12 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 16 17 21 21 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81. MIN HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS BECOMING WEST IN THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (40800). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............66 70 74 77 79 78 RH..............97 90 84 79 74 74 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 9 11 9 20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 17 16 20 16 $$ FORECASTER...KEVIN REQUESTED BY...MARK HALE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100830.LIZAR.01/DLH