FNUS75 KBOU 020211 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 811 PM MDT WED SEP 1 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES THAN WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE U.S. SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STAY TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47. MAX HUMIDITY........45-55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 8-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-6400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64. MIN HUMIDITY........24-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. NORTHWEST WINDS 8-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN EAST TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400-8400 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 2400...THEN CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40. MAX HUMIDITY........55-65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......7200-8200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1200-2200 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-72. MIN HUMIDITY........14-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS 65 TO 75. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .LABOR DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/01-19 16 0 57 30 W 23 1 5434 W 33 159196 E 09/01-20 16 0 55 33 W 22 1 4373 W 35 129614 V 09/01-21 16 0 53 35 W 22 35 2 1 W43 3311 W 35 100031 V 09/01-22 16 0 52 36 W 22 1 2387 W 33 71373 G 09/01-23 16 0 51 38 W 22 1 1463 W 31 42715 F 09/02-00 2 0 49 40 W 22 35 4 1 W41 538 W 30 14058 P 09/02-01 2 0 47 42 W 21 1 475 W 28 11766 P 09/02-02 2 0 46 43 W 20 1 412 W 25 9473 P 09/02-03 2 0 45 43 W 20 31 3 1 W46 349 W 24 7181 P 09/02-04 2 0 45 43 W 23 1 516 W 26 12718 P 09/02-05 2 0 45 42 W 28 1 682 W 30 18255 P 09/02-06 2 0 45 42 W 30 48 3 1 NW45 848 W 32 23792 P 09/02-07 2 0 46 40 W 28 1 1883 W 32 50791 F 09/02-08 2 0 48 38 W 23 1 2919 W 31 77790 G 09/02-09 2 0 51 34 W 18 30 3 1 W48 3954 W 30 104789 V 09/02-10 2 0 54 31 W 15 1 4863 W 28 112222 V 09/02-11 2 0 55 30 W 13 1 5772 W 25 119655 V 09/02-12 20 0 57 29 W 10 16 2 1 W54 6681 NW 22 127088 V 09/02-13 20 0 58 29 W 9 1 7319 NW 21 132178 V 09/02-14 20 0 58 29 NW 8 1 7957 NW 20 137268 V 09/02-15 20 0 59 29 NW 7 7 2 1 NW53 8595 NW 20 142358 V 09/02-16 20 0 59 29 N 7 1 8472 NW 17 123963 V 09/02-17 20 0 58 31 NE 7 1 8349 W 15 105567 V 09/02-18 35 0 57 31 NE 7 7 2 1 NW47 8227 W 13 87172 G 09/02-19 35 0 55 35 E 7 1 6957 W 10 65652 G 09/02-20 35 0 52 38 E 6 1 5688 SW 8 44133 F 09/02-21 35 0 50 41 E 5 5 2 1 NW45 4419 SW 6 22613 P 09/02-22 35 0 49 43 SE 5 1 3701 SW 7 19824 P 09/02-23 4 0 47 45 S 5 1 2984 SW 7 17036 P 09/03-00 4 0 45 49 S 5 5 3 1 NW40 2267 SW 7 14247 P 09/03-01 4 0 44 52 S 5 1 1894 SW 7 11265 P 09/03-02 4 0 42 55 SW 5 1 1520 W 6 8284 P 09/03-03 4 0 42 57 SW 5 5 4 1 NW38 1146 W 6 5302 P 09/03-04 4 0 41 57 SW 5 1 1057 W 6 4947 P 09/03-05 4 0 41 58 W 6 1 968 W 6 4592 P 09/03-06 4 0 41 58 W 6 6 4 1 NW36 879 W 6 4237 P 09/03-07 4 0 42 55 SW 6 1 1436 W 7 8794 P 09/03-08 4 0 46 47 SW 5 1 1993 W 7 13350 P 09/03-09 4 0 51 40 SW 5 5 4 1 NW32 2550 W 8 17907 P 09/03-10 4 0 55 35 SW 5 1 3615 W 10 34786 P 09/03-11 4 0 57 32 SW 5 1 4680 W 12 51664 F 09/03-12 48 0 59 30 SW 5 5 5 1 NW23 5744 W 14 68542 G 09/03-13 48 0 60 28 SW 5 1 6452 W 15 82164 G 09/03-14 48 0 61 27 SW 6 1 7160 W 15 95785 G 09/03-15 48 0 62 26 SW 6 6 3 1 W20 7868 W 16 109407 V 09/03-16 48 0 62 26 SW 6 1 7956 W 16 114945 V 09/03-17 48 0 61 27 W 6 1 8044 W 17 120482 V 09/03-18 48 0 61 27 W 6 6 3 1 W28 8132 W 17 126020 V 09/03-19 48 0 59 30 W 6 1 6342 W 16 95185 G 09/03-20 48 0 58 33 W 6 1 4551 W 15 64351 G 09/03-21 48 0 56 35 W 7 7 5 1 W30 2761 W 14 33517 P 09/03-22 48 0 55 38 W 8 1 2122 W 14 25536 P 09/03-23 48 0 54 40 W 9 1 1484 W 14 17556 P 09/04-00 14 0 53 43 W 10 10 5 1 W30 846 W 13 9576 P 09/04-01 14 0 52 46 W 12 1 667 W 14 7740 P 09/04-02 14 0 51 49 W 12 1 488 W 15 5905 P 09/04-03 14 0 50 50 W 13 21 3 1 NW30 310 W 15 4070 P 09/04-04 14 0 50 51 W 14 1 313 W 16 4527 P 09/04-05 14 0 50 50 W 15 1 317 W 18 4985 P 09/04-06 14 0 50 49 W 16 25 3 1 NW29 321 W 20 5442 P 09/04-07 14 0 50 44 W 16 1 1355 W 23 34227 P 09/04-08 14 0 53 37 W 16 1 2390 W 28 63012 G 09/04-09 14 0 56 32 W 16 25 4 1 NW24 3424 W 31 91796 G 09/04-10 14 0 59 30 W 16 1 5163 W 31 139883 V 09/04-11 14 0 61 30 W 15 1 6902 W 31 187969 E 09/04-12 37 0 62 31 W 15 24 3 1 NW28 8641 W 31 236056 E 09/04-13 37 0 63 30 W 15 1 9214 NW 31 243709 E 09/04-14 37 0 64 30 NW 15 1 9786 NW 30 251362 E 09/04-15 37 0 64 29 NW 15 24 3 1 NW38 10359 NW 29 259015 E 09/04-16 37 0 64 29 W 14 1 10193 W 29 250724 E 09/04-17 37 0 63 30 W 13 1 10027 W 28 242432 E 09/04-18 37 0 63 30 W 12 18 3 1 NW41 9862 W 28 234141 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...MATT DUTTON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100901.COWCR.01/BOU