FNUS73 KDLH 011334 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR LIZARD...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 834 AM CDT WED SEP 1 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0755 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY... POSSIBLY REACHING DOWN TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS ABOVE 10 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY...BUT A BIT LOWER FOR TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT IF THE DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED FOR ENOUGH OF THE NIGHT...IT MAY NOT RECOVER AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR AND I WILL BE MONITORING THE NEW MORNING MODEL RUNS AS WELL. THINK THERE IS HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN TOMORROW...AND NEARLY EVERY COMPUTER SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT HIGH CHANCES WITH RAINFALL OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH OR BETTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING RIGHT OVER OUR AREA...SO WHEN THAT HAPPENS...WE TEND TO GET WAVES OF PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME LET UP FOR A TIME...BEFORE THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND PRODUCES WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAIN. FEEL FREE TO CALL ANYTIME. I JUST GOT IN AT 8 AM...BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE FIRE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-73. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH. PERHAPS A GUST TO ABOUT 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2300 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (30500) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (68900) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............52 62 66 70 72 71 RH..............86 50 44 36 32 34 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 6 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 7 8 7 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 3 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST 3 TO 4 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......350 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1150). TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............64 56 53 50 49 48 RH..............50 69 77 86 89 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S S SE E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63. MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2250 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (29600). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............47 52 56 59 61 60 RH..............93 80 74 69 65 67 20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 7 7 6 5 $$ FORECASTER...DEAN P. REQUESTED BY...VANCE HAZELTON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100901.LIZAR.01/DLH