FNUS75 KRIW 031106
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR POLE CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
506 AM MDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND MAINLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE FIRE
SITE TODAY. BY MID AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST...MORE WESTERLY AT RIDGE TOP. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY...BUT BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND NOON SUNDAY
BRINGING A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR/WM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3 TO 6 MPH BY 1000 BECOMING
                    WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH BETWEEN 1300 AND
                    1500.  GUSTS TO 15 MPH AFTER 1300.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....VARIABLE 3 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 4 TO 8 MPH
                    AROUND 1100...THEN WEST SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH
                    BY 1500.  GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 1300.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5400-6400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH
                    BETWEEN NOON AND 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 6 MPH BY 2100.
                    GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE EVENING.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 20 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...THEN DECREASING
                    TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 20 MPH UNTIL SUNSET...THEN DECREASING
                    TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD...DECREASING TO FAIR BY 2100...
                    BECOMING POOR BY MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH AFTER 1000 AM...BECOMING
                    WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 16 MPH BETWEEN 1400 AND
                    1600. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AFTER 1400.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 11 MPH...BECOMING
                    WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    25 TO 30 MPH AFTER 1400.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9400-10400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
                    BECOMING WEST 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT AFTER 1300.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY MIDDAY.

.MONDAY...LABOR DAY...COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
WEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS/MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...LOCKWOOD
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100903.POLEC.01/RIW