FNUS75 KBOU 061720 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FOURMILE CANYON...BOULDER COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1115 AM MDT MON SEP 6 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... FIRE AREA IS AT THE BOTTOM OF A DOWNSLOPE MOUNTAIN WAVE. EXPECTING STEADY WEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS TOWARD NEDERLAND AND WARD...BUT SOME VARIABILITY IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BUT THE LOWER FOOTHILLS WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE TURBULENCE AT THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAIN WAVE. SO...WATCH FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN DIRECTION AND DO NOT BE FOOLED BY QUIET PERIODS AS THE WIND MAY RETURN SUDDENLY. A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1600 AND 2200 HOURS...NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH THE FIRE. THIS WOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE HUMID AIR BUT STILL QUITE DRY...AND CAN NOT BE COUNTED ON TO LAST FOR VERY LONG. BY LATE EVENING DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DOMINATE AGAIN. MORE ROUTINE UPSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT. PLEASE CALL FOR MORE INFORMATION IF NEEDED. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-70. MIN HUMIDITY........9-13%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......CANYON...WEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY MIDDAY. RIDGES...WEST 15-25 MPH. GUSTS TO 45 MPH MAINLY MIDDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 33-44 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-6800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-42. MAX HUMIDITY........35-40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......CANYON...WEST 6-12 MPH. POSSIBLE PERIOD OF EAST WINDS AT 4-8 MPH IN THE EVENING. RIDGES...WEST 8-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FOURMILE CANYON. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/06-11 1 1 55 20 W 15 25 1 6222 W 45 249119 E 09/06-12 0 0 59 17 W 16 25 4 1 W67 6708 W 49 291742 E 09/06-13 0 0 64 16 W 16 1 6614 W 47 270051 E 09/06-14 0 0 65 17 W 16 1 6519 W 44 248361 E 09/06-15 0 0 65 18 W 15 24 4 1 W59 6425 W 40 226670 E 09/06-16 0 0 65 17 W 14 1 6178 W 35 189670 E 09/06-17 0 0 63 17 W 13 1 5932 W 29 152670 E 09/06-18 0 0 61 17 W 12 18 4 1 W47 5686 W 23 115670 V 09/06-19 0 0 58 20 W 10 1 4123 W 18 79134 G 09/06-20 0 0 54 24 W 8 1 2560 SW 13 42597 F 09/06-21 0 0 50 30 W 7 7 3 1 W43 997 SW 7 6060 P 09/06-22 0 0 47 35 W 7 1 809 SW 7 4699 P 09/06-23 0 0 45 39 SW 7 1 620 SW 6 3338 P 09/07-00 0 0 43 42 SW 7 7 4 1 W40 432 SW 6 1977 P 09/07-01 0 0 42 44 W 7 1 359 SW 6 1682 P 09/07-02 0 0 40 44 W 6 1 287 W 6 1387 P 09/07-03 0 0 39 44 W 6 6 4 1 W41 215 W 6 1093 P 09/07-04 0 0 38 44 W 7 1 189 W 7 1061 P 09/07-05 0 0 37 44 W 8 1 164 W 7 1029 P 09/07-06 3 0 37 42 W 8 13 4 1 W41 139 W 8 997 P 09/07-07 3 0 39 40 W 7 1 221 W 7 1237 P 09/07-08 3 0 43 36 W 5 1 304 W 6 1476 P 09/07-09 3 0 49 30 W 2 2 3 1 W40 387 W 5 1716 P 09/07-10 3 0 55 25 W 2 1 1930 W 8 23056 P 09/07-11 3 0 60 21 S 2 1 3472 W 12 44397 F 09/07-12 36 0 65 19 SE 3 3 3 1 W40 5014 W 15 65737 G 09/07-13 36 0 67 18 SE 3 1 5355 W 15 67003 G 09/07-14 36 0 69 17 SE 5 1 5696 SW 14 68270 G 09/07-15 36 0 70 17 SE 5 5 2 1 W30 6038 SW 14 69536 G 09/07-16 36 0 70 17 SE 5 1 5758 SW 12 56273 F 09/07-17 36 0 69 18 SE 6 1 5478 SW 9 43009 F 09/07-18 36 3 69 19 E 6 6 3 1 W20 5197 SW 7 29745 P 09/07-19 36 3 65 22 SE 6 1 3571 SW 7 20443 P 09/07-20 36 3 62 27 SW 6 1 1946 SW 7 11141 P 09/07-21 36 3 60 32 SW 6 6 2 1 SW22 320 SW 7 1838 P 09/07-22 36 3 58 36 W 7 1 505 SW 6 2255 P 09/07-23 36 3 56 42 W 7 1 347 W 7 1738 P 09/08-00 54 3 54 48 W 8 13 2 1 SW38 189 W 7 1220 P 09/08-01 54 3 52 53 W 9 1 171 W 8 1152 P 09/08-02 54 3 50 55 W 9 1 154 W 8 1084 P 09/08-03 54 3 49 57 W 9 15 2 1 W44 136 W 8 1016 P 09/08-04 54 3 49 57 W 9 1 133 W 8 968 P 09/08-05 54 3 48 57 W 8 1 129 W 8 920 P 09/08-06 54 7 48 57 W 8 13 2 1 W24 126 W 8 872 P 09/08-07 54 7 50 54 W 8 1 320 W 8 2583 P 09/08-08 54 7 53 49 W 8 1 513 W 9 4293 P 09/08-09 54 7 58 43 W 8 13 2 1 SW25 707 W 9 6004 P 09/08-10 54 7 62 37 W 8 1 1851 W 14 28918 P 09/08-11 54 7 64 35 W 8 1 2996 SW 17 51832 F 09/08-12 61 20 66 33 W 8 13 2 3 SW38 4140 SW 21 74746 G 09/08-13 61 20 68 32 W 7 3 4642 SW 18 70621 G 09/08-14 61 20 69 31 S 5 3 5145 SW 15 66495 G 09/08-15 61 20 69 30 S 3 3 2 3 SW26 5648 S 13 62370 G 09/08-16 61 20 69 31 S 3 3 5540 S 13 60474 G 09/08-17 61 20 68 32 W 5 3 5432 SW 13 58577 F 09/08-18 61 20 68 32 W 6 6 2 3 SW32 5324 SW 13 56680 F 09/08-19 61 20 65 36 W 6 3 09/08-20 61 20 62 40 SW 7 3 09/08-21 61 20 60 43 SW 7 7 3 09/08-22 61 20 59 47 SW 7 3 09/08-23 61 20 58 50 W 8 3 09/09-00 38 0 56 55 W 8 13 1 09/09-01 38 0 54 57 W 8 1 09/09-02 38 0 53 57 W 8 1 09/09-03 38 0 52 57 W 8 13 1 09/09-04 38 0 51 56 W 8 1 09/09-05 38 0 51 56 W 8 1 09/09-06 38 0 51 55 W 8 13 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100906.FOURM.01/BOU