FNUS75 KBOU 081028 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 428 AM MDT WED SEP 8 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. THE STORMS WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE MAINLY WEST AT 15-25 MPH THRU 1200 WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES. BY 1200 THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10-15 MPH EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OF COURSE. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. ...PLEASE NOTE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH AT TIMES IN THE BURN AREA WITH LOW HUMIDITIES... ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....61. MIN HUMIDITY........43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 17-27 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800-7800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....48. MAX HUMIDITY........58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING THEN 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....61. MIN HUMIDITY........26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN AROUND 28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7200 FT AGL AFTER 0700. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. BREEZY. WEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/08-04 83 20 49 52 SW 26 3 1008 SW 25 21240 P 09/08-05 83 20 49 55 W 26 3 874 W 29 20948 P 09/08-06 58 20 49 57 W 26 43 2 1 SW51 739 W 32 20656 P 09/08-07 58 20 50 57 W 24 1 1380 W 30 34594 P 09/08-08 58 20 51 55 W 21 1 2022 W 29 48533 F 09/08-09 61 20 54 52 W 18 30 2 1 SW41 2663 W 26 62472 G 09/08-10 61 20 56 49 W 17 1 4124 W 28 100074 V 09/08-11 61 20 58 46 SW 16 1 5584 SW 28 137676 V 09/08-12 74 40 60 44 SW 15 24 2 4 SW44 7045 SW 29 175278 E 09/08-13 74 40 61 43 SW 14 4 7273 SW 25 161517 E 09/08-14 74 40 61 43 SW 13 4 7502 SW 23 147756 V 09/08-15 74 40 61 43 SW 12 18 2 4 SW45 7731 SW 20 133995 V 09/08-16 74 40 60 43 SW 10 4 7135 SW 17 107124 V 09/08-17 74 40 60 44 SW 9 4 6538 SW 14 80254 G 09/08-18 74 29 60 43 SW 8 13 2 4 SW35 5942 SW 10 53384 F 09/08-19 74 29 58 46 SW 9 4 5165 SW 12 51219 F 09/08-20 74 29 56 50 SW 10 4 4388 SW 14 49053 F 09/08-21 67 29 55 52 SW 12 18 2 4 SW37 3610 SW 15 46888 F 09/08-22 67 29 54 54 SW 12 4 2657 SW 14 33703 P 09/08-23 67 29 53 55 SW 10 4 1703 SW 13 20517 P 09/09-00 50 10 52 58 SW 10 16 2 2 SW38 750 SW 12 7332 P 09/09-01 50 10 51 58 SW 10 2 594 SW 10 5710 P 09/09-02 50 10 50 58 SW 12 2 437 SW 10 4089 P 09/09-03 50 10 50 58 SW 12 18 2 2 SW39 281 SW 10 2468 P 09/09-04 50 10 49 57 SW 12 2 294 SW 10 2575 P 09/09-05 50 10 49 55 SW 10 2 306 SW 10 2682 P 09/09-06 42 6 49 54 SW 12 18 2 1 SW30 319 SW 10 2789 P 09/09-07 42 6 50 52 SW 14 1 1447 SW 15 29081 P 09/09-08 42 6 52 48 SW 18 1 2575 SW 21 55373 F 09/09-09 42 6 54 44 SW 23 37 2 1 SW41 3702 SW 25 81665 G 09/09-10 42 6 57 39 SW 22 1 4559 SW 26 107488 V 09/09-11 42 6 58 37 SW 20 1 5415 SW 28 133315 V 09/09-12 50 1 59 35 SW 17 28 2 1 SW49 6272 SW 29 159141 E 09/09-13 50 1 60 32 SW 17 1 6705 SW 29 169787 E 09/09-14 50 1 60 30 S 18 1 7137 SW 29 180432 E 09/09-15 50 1 60 29 S 20 31 2 1 SW53 7570 SW 29 191078 E 09/09-16 50 1 60 27 SW 18 1 6850 SW 28 168638 E 09/09-17 50 1 60 27 SW 17 1 6130 SW 28 146199 V 09/09-18 55 1 59 26 SW 17 28 3 1 SW48 5410 SW 26 123760 V 09/09-19 55 1 57 28 SW 21 1 4905 SW 28 117874 V 09/09-20 55 1 55 31 W 26 1 4400 SW 30 111988 V 09/09-21 55 1 54 33 W 31 49 3 1 SW49 3895 SW 31 106102 V 09/09-22 55 1 53 34 W 33 1 3448 SW 33 98037 G 09/09-23 55 1 52 36 W 35 1 3001 SW 35 89972 G 09/10-00 47 1 50 38 W 35 55 3 1 SW49 2554 W 37 81907 G 09/10-01 47 1 49 39 W 33 1 2536 W 38 82578 G 09/10-02 47 1 48 40 W 33 1 2517 W 38 83250 G 09/10-03 47 1 48 40 W 32 52 3 1 SW64 2498 W 39 83921 G 09/10-04 47 1 48 40 W 33 1 2830 W 41 101956 V 09/10-05 47 1 47 39 W 35 1 3161 W 44 119991 V 09/10-06 47 1 47 38 W 36 58 2 1 SW67 3492 W 46 138027 V 09/10-07 47 1 48 36 W 35 1 4435 W 46 175325 E 09/10-08 47 1 49 35 W 32 1 5378 W 46 212623 E 09/10-09 47 0 50 32 W 30 48 2 1 SW59 6321 W 46 249921 E 09/10-10 47 0 52 30 W 30 1 6960 W 41 245179 E 09/10-11 47 0 52 28 W 31 1 7600 W 37 240438 E 09/10-12 27 0 53 27 W 32 52 2 1 W33 8240 W 33 235696 E 09/10-13 27 0 54 27 W 32 1 8197 W 33 238800 E 09/10-14 27 0 54 26 W 31 1 8154 W 35 241903 E 09/10-15 27 0 54 26 W 30 48 3 1 W48 8111 W 35 245006 E 09/10-16 27 0 54 27 W 29 1 7673 W 36 236454 E 09/10-17 27 0 53 27 W 26 1 7236 W 37 227903 E 09/10-18 27 0 53 28 W 24 39 2 1 W47 6798 W 37 219351 E 09/10-19 27 0 51 30 W 22 1 09/10-20 27 0 49 33 W 20 1 09/10-21 27 0 48 34 W 17 28 1 09/10-22 27 0 47 36 W 15 1 09/10-23 27 0 46 37 W 13 1 09/11-00 23 0 45 39 W 10 16 1 09/11-01 23 0 44 40 W 7 1 09/11-02 23 0 43 41 W 5 1 09/11-03 23 0 43 41 SW 3 3 1 09/11-04 23 0 42 40 W 6 1 09/11-05 23 0 42 39 W 8 1 09/11-06 23 0 42 38 W 10 16 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ RPK...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FIRE OPERATIONS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100907.COWCR.01/BOU