FNUS75 KBOU 080332 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FOURMILE CANYON...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 930 PM MDT TUE SEP 7 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OVER THE FIRE AREA BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN WAVE CONDITIONS. THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL REMAIN OVER RIDGETOPS WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS IN THE VALLEY BOTTOMS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. WILL PLAN ON SENDING ANOTHER FORECAST OUT BY 0500 LOCAL TIME ON WEDNESDAY. PLEASE CALL IF YOU NEED MORE INFORMATION OR AN EARLIER UPDATE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....52. MAX HUMIDITY........58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 8-18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER RIDGES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 0300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-74. MIN HUMIDITY........34-38%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN DECREASING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST 5-11 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400-8400 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....51. MAX HUMIDITY........67-71%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-75. MIN HUMIDITY........24-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8000-8600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FOURMILE CANYON. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/07-21 78 10 61 33 CALM 1 3 1 SW20 944 S 7 5649 P 09/07-22 78 10 60 37 W 3 1 1339 S 9 12664 P 09/07-23 78 10 58 40 W 8 1 1733 SW 12 19678 P 09/08-00 78 10 57 44 W 12 18 2 1 SW43 2129 SW 15 26692 P 09/08-01 78 10 56 47 W 14 1 1569 SW 14 19621 P 09/08-02 78 10 55 50 SW 14 1 1009 SW 14 12550 P 09/08-03 78 10 54 52 SW 14 22 2 1 W31 450 SW 14 5479 P 09/08-04 78 10 53 55 SW 14 1 407 SW 17 5700 P 09/08-05 78 10 52 57 W 14 1 364 W 20 5921 P 09/08-06 63 10 52 58 W 14 22 2 2 SW49 321 W 23 6143 P 09/08-07 63 10 53 57 W 13 2 870 W 23 17044 P 09/08-08 63 10 56 53 W 12 2 1418 W 23 27944 P 09/08-09 63 10 59 49 W 10 17 2 2 SW37 1967 W 23 38845 P 09/08-10 63 10 63 44 W 12 2 3774 W 21 60146 G 09/08-11 63 10 66 40 SW 12 2 5581 SW 18 81448 G 09/08-12 72 20 69 37 SW 12 18 2 3 SW46 7387 SW 16 102749 V 09/08-13 72 20 70 36 S 10 3 7801 SW 14 85510 G 09/08-14 72 20 70 36 S 9 3 8214 S 10 68271 G 09/08-15 72 20 70 37 S 8 13 2 3 S 8 8627 SE 7 51033 F 09/08-16 72 20 70 39 S 7 3 8046 S 7 49141 F 09/08-17 72 20 69 41 SW 6 3 7465 SW 7 47250 F 09/08-18 72 20 70 41 SW 6 6 2 3 SW16 6883 SW 8 45358 F 09/08-19 72 20 67 45 SW 6 3 5104 SW 8 33825 P 09/08-20 72 20 64 50 W 6 3 3324 W 8 22292 P 09/08-21 72 20 62 53 W 6 6 2 3 SW26 1545 W 8 10758 P 09/08-22 72 20 60 56 W 7 3 863 W 6 4180 P 09/08-23 72 20 59 58 W 7 3 570 W 7 2907 P 09/09-00 38 6 56 62 W 8 13 2 1 SW25 276 W 7 1635 P 09/09-01 38 6 55 66 W 9 1 242 W 7 1469 P 09/09-02 38 6 53 68 W 9 1 208 W 7 1302 P 09/09-03 38 6 52 69 W 9 14 2 1 SW31 174 W 8 1136 P 09/09-04 38 6 52 69 W 9 1 178 W 8 1185 P 09/09-05 38 6 52 68 W 8 1 182 W 8 1234 P 09/09-06 42 4 52 66 W 8 13 2 1 SW33 187 W 8 1283 P 09/09-07 42 4 53 63 W 9 1 1461 W 10 20361 P 09/09-08 42 4 57 55 W 9 1 2735 SW 14 39439 P 09/09-09 42 4 62 46 W 10 16 2 1 SW30 4010 SW 17 58517 F 09/09-10 42 4 66 39 W 10 1 5305 SW 18 85656 G 09/09-11 42 4 68 35 SW 9 1 6601 SW 20 112797 V 09/09-12 50 6 70 31 SW 9 15 2 1 SW21 7896 SW 21 139937 V 09/09-13 50 6 71 29 SW 9 1 8146 SW 22 154574 E 09/09-14 50 6 72 27 SW 9 1 8396 SW 23 169213 E 09/09-15 50 6 73 26 SW 10 16 2 1 SW35 8646 SW 25 183851 E 09/09-16 50 6 73 26 SW 12 1 8432 SW 26 186290 E 09/09-17 50 6 71 28 W 13 1 8219 SW 26 188729 E 09/09-18 54 6 71 28 W 14 22 3 1 SW51 8005 SW 28 191169 E 09/09-19 54 6 67 31 W 15 1 6931 SW 29 170273 E 09/09-20 54 6 64 33 W 17 1 5855 SW 30 149378 V 09/09-21 54 6 61 33 W 18 29 3 1 SW49 4780 SW 31 128483 V 09/09-22 54 6 60 33 W 18 1 3682 SW 32 101156 V 09/09-23 54 6 58 34 W 17 1 2584 W 35 73828 G 09/10-00 45 1 55 36 W 17 28 4 1 SW47 1486 W 36 46499 F 09/10-01 45 1 53 39 W 18 1 1191 W 36 36823 P 09/10-02 45 1 51 41 W 18 1 897 W 35 27147 P 09/10-03 45 1 50 44 W 20 32 4 1 SW59 602 W 33 17471 P 09/10-04 45 1 50 45 W 20 1 811 W 37 26331 P 09/10-05 45 1 49 47 W 20 1 1020 W 39 35190 P 09/10-06 45 1 49 48 W 20 31 4 1 SW44 1229 W 41 44050 F 09/10-07 45 1 51 45 W 18 1 2486 W 38 76867 G 09/10-08 45 1 53 43 W 17 1 3743 W 36 109683 V 09/10-09 45 0 57 37 W 16 26 3 1 SW44 4999 W 33 142500 V 09/10-10 45 0 61 32 W 15 1 6543 W 35 199874 E 09/10-11 45 0 63 29 W 15 1 8086 W 37 257248 E 09/10-12 37 0 64 27 W 14 22 2 1 SW60 9630 W 38 314622 E 09/10-13 37 0 65 25 W 15 1 10836 W 39 363701 E 09/10-14 37 0 66 25 W 15 1 12041 W 39 412780 E 09/10-15 37 0 67 24 W 16 25 2 1 W51 13246 W 40 461860 E 09/10-16 37 0 67 25 W 16 1 12124 W 39 408975 E 09/10-17 37 0 65 26 W 15 1 11002 W 37 356091 E 09/10-18 37 0 65 27 W 13 21 2 1 W28 9879 W 36 303206 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...RUSSELL DAWDY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100907.FOURM.03/BOU