FNUS75 KCYS 072313
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR ILLINOIS CREEK...USFS MBF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
513 PM MDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1634 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HAINES 6 CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING THEN HAINES 5 EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THIS EVENING...CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S FAHRENHEIT. THE
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSHPHERE
WILL ALLOW FOR FAIR TO GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AROUND 6 PM MDT...BUT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING
LATE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY AROUND 3 AM MDT...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY.

WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE FIRE WEDNESDAY AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
NOON MDT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 10 AM MDT AND BECOME GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...INCREASING TO
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) BY 9 PM MDT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38 TO 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........65 TO 75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH GUSTS TO 16 MPH
                    THROUGH 6 PM MDT THEN DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 MPH
                    THROUGH 9 PM MDT...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
                    BECOME SOUTH AT 5 TO 8 WITH GUSTS TO 13 AS CLOUD
                    COVER INCREASES THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM MDT. THEN
                    WINDS WILL BECOME 3 TO 5 MPH
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
                    NIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........HAINES 6 THROUGH 9 PM MDT...THEN 5 OR MODERATE
                    POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT THROUGH AROUND 3 AM MDT...THEN POOR
                    THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT (67800-9900 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). 40% CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON MDT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........3 TO 5 MPH DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 24 MPH
                    AFTER 10 AM MDT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT
                    CHANCE FOR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING EXCELLENT AFTER 11 AM MDT
                    (9900-174800 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...CARPENTER
REQUESTED BY...BONENBERGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100907.ILLIN.01/CYS