FNUS75 KRIW 081037
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER GROS VENTRE RX...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
437 AM MDT WED SEP 8 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1855 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AREA WILL MOISTEN
UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM
OVER THE AREA. A DRIER AIR MASS...THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT... WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT
LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCE FROM
                    1200 TO 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTH SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH
                    NOON THROUGH 1600...ERRATIC CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WIND LIKELY
                    TO DOMINATE AFTER 1600 PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST AND NORTH
                    WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH IN THE MORNING...SOUTHWEST
                    25 TO 30 MPH NOON THROUGH 1600...DECREASING TO 10
                    TO 15 MPH AFTER 1600.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
                    GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-6400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING...SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (73100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (130000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2000. BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) LATE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-44.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
                    THROUGH 2000 BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST OR DOWNSLOPE 5 TO
                    9 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.8 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (90300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (28200
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLOUDY
                    (85-95 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-42 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST SOUTHEAST 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 15
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST WITH FRONTAL
                    PASSAGE AROUND 1500. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.35 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400-7400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (63600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (141200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
13 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...ABBENDROTH
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100907.LOWER.02/RIW